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Research Report SRR99-002
Modelling the perception of current and prospective economic situation
Bernd Roenz
Abstract:
Data of the economic development in Germany are mainly
collected by the official statistics bureau, whereas the inquiry
of citizens' subjective perception, evaluation and expectations of
the economic situation are reserved for the statistical programmes
of the social sciences. From these programmes the data sets of the
general population survey of social sciences (ALLBUS) for the
years 1991, 1992, 1994 and 1996 are used for the analysis. We
investigate the extent to which the perception of the current and
future economic situation, for Germany and individually, depaends
on certain characteristics of the interviewed persons such as
region, sex, size of household, family status, age and net income.
The multinomial logit model is an appropriate statistical model
for estimating the effects of the explanatory variables on the
response variable ``assessment of the economic situation". The
results of the bivariate and multivariate estimations are
discussed.
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